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Daily View: Will the euro survive?

Clare Spencer | 10:25 UK time, Monday, 7 November 2011

A hammer smashing a window with a euro notes painted on it

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Commentators ponder the chances of the euro currency surviving.

that if all the countries in the eurozone continue to fail to accept that they have to take on collective responsibilities for each others' debts then that only leaves two options for the euro:

"One is to abandon the currency altogether, which would cause mayhem and probably a Great Depression, given the integration of Europe's financial systems. The other is to return the currency to its original conception, that of a mechanism run according to strictly enforced rules, but adding one further enforcement method, namely the threat of expulsion. This should begin, as it should have done a year ago, with Greece's departure from the euro."

However, that it has already been proven that the eurozone countries are resistant to strict rules that support the currency, acting in the interest of their nations instead:

"As nation states have survived more than five decades of euro-bombast, so supra-national politicians are finding themselves increasingly at odds with what might be called 'referendal' politics. Direct democracy, plebiscites, e-petitions, the 'Occupy' protests around the world, even the culture of phone voting in television shows: it is here that the impetus and the energy lie, uncoordinated and multidirectional though the phenomenon may be. The entire Cannes summit was nearly thrown off course by the wild-card threat of a referendum in Greece on the latest rescue plan. The psychology of the EU - a postwar elite bureaucracy - is entirely out of kilter with this very modern surge of popular protest: technology-driven, non-hierarchical, anti-elitist. It is like trying to connect an old ribbon typewriter to an iPad."

that the Greek resistance to being told what to do by an outside country will not only threaten the euro but also the EU:

"The bailout is a loan (which will be paid back fully; the "haircut" relates to privately held bonds only). A loan to a sovereign government does not give the lending governments the power to treat the country like a protectorate. But this is what has been happening, increasing popular anger. The dispatch of colonial-type administrators to run the country under the recent proposals has now been completed.
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"It is not only Papandreou: Europe's hubris is also exposed. The Greek people with their prolonged struggles and sacrifices will finally get rid of their government. The weakest link has fallen partly as a result of popular resistance. Now the dominoes will move west. The economic future of Greece will be difficult, but democracy has won. The elite's fear of 'contagion' should not be just about the euro - they should also fear Greek resistance spreading across Europe."

If the euro does survive, that Britain may not want to stay in the EU:

"If the eurozone holds together, it will mean putting the UK and another nine EU members into a second-tier Europe, which will resemble the European Free Trade Association of the early days. If that happens, Britain's staying in the EU becomes much harder to defend. So it may be worth staying in only if the euro breaks up - the thing all European leaders, including Cameron, are desperate to avoid."

But the that domestic politics is keeping Britain from asking if it should leave the EU:

"So why do we have to pretend we're happy EU campers, pulling together to save it in its hour of crisis? Frau Merkel and Monsieur Sarkozy know that behind David Cameron's public face of support is the private conviction that their cherished project is doomed.
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"Cameron can't say so, of course, for fear of upsetting Nick Clegg and bringing his own short-term project - the coalition - to an abrupt end."

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