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Daily View: Budget predictions

Clare Spencer | 08:43 UK time, Monday, 21 March 2011

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Commentators make their suggestions about what should be in Wednesday's budget.

the significance of this budget:

"Reforms that are not done now will have minimum opportunity of making an impact before the next Election because things take so long to get through the system. The challenge for Osborne is that he has little money to play with. There's no room for spending increases or significant tax cuts."

that it doesn't matter if the Budget makes George Osborne unpopular:

"Mr Osborne still struggles to connect with the public and although voters may never really warm to him, they never warmed to Margaret Thatcher either. They respected the Iron Lady and, in time, they may respect him if he fixes the broken economy. That is the hope of the loyal circle that surrounds him. Osborne-ites hope to convince commentators, MPs and the Tory grassroots first. This ripples strategy is slowly producing results."

that it's not the cuts but the alternative vote (AV) referendum that will test the coalition:

"The budget will neither give nor take more away, restricting the chancellor's ability to compensate people hit by the cost of living - politically more toxic than cuts to the public sector. It will push for growth by simplifying regulation, but that is as economically effective as it is unmarketable.
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"Popular or not, the budget will not break the government. The event that matters least to the public is the one that will test the coalition the most: the AV referendum. Whatever happens, one part of the government will soon feel defeated and trapped."

that this Budget was the government's great hope for getting itself back on track, but Libya took over the news agenda:

"Grabbing the newspaper headlines, resetting the narrative etc. Now, the budget will be overshadowed by war. These Tomahawks don't come cheap and Osborne has pitifully few cards to play. He knows that his budget will not live up to David Cameron's deeply unhelpful description of it as the "most pro-growth in a generation. I suspect it will be more of a Paul Daniels budget: you'll like it, but not a lot."

The despite inevitably bad PR from merging national insurance and income tax, George Osborne should go ahead with the plan:

"Such punitive taxation would be very hard to defend to the electorate. Left-wing politicians would face one of their nightmares - real popular pressure to reduce the size of the state; meanwhile, advocates of small government would be required to turn their rhetoric into legislation, something they are not good at doing. This is precisely the kind of audacious thinking we expect of Mr Osborne, and therefore we hope he will press ahead with it on Wednesday."

that the Budget will attempt a radical social re-engineering of the UK:

"It is becoming increasingly clear that, from cuts to tax breaks, the coalition is taking all the steps it can to refashion the country along pro-market, anti-equality lines. Against such accusations, the government claims it is merely being level-headed: paying off all that burdensome debt and warding off the markets that prowl about our neighbours. But just as Margaret Thatcher proselytised the virtues of private ownership to cover her clawing away at public institutions, so today does David Cameron preach about devolved responsibility to hide the true intention behind making the cuts."

a way around the dilemma of stimulating growth without the money to do it:

"The chancellor's Budget should expand on existing plans, and consult on establishing a new UK National Investment Bank. This should have a mandate to finance not only "green" projects, but also other that can contribute to the rebalancing of the economy - particularly transport infrastructure, social housing, and export-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises."

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