Cumbria a crucial battleground in 2010 General Election
It may not be feted generally as a crucial battleground but Cumbria could have a big role to play in the coming election.
I've suspected that was the case for a while, but some number crunching we've done ahead of the election confirms how vital it could be to the Conservatives.
The Tories need a swing of 6.9% from Labour to gain a Commons majority, and Cumbria has three seats which need roughly that kind of switch for them to win.
is the closest, , closely - all needing swings of between 6 and 7%
They are Tory targets 121, 129 and 132 respectively.
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that one of those seats could be the crucial one the Conservatives need to gain power, particularly as all three look set to count their votes on Friday morning rather than Thursday night.
But the close contests expected in all three seats show how tough a task the Tories might face to win.
may help them in Barrow, and recent local election results there have been bad for Labour.
But Carlisle and Copeland both look tough nuts to crack.
Boundary changes help. Copeland gains Keswick, changing the constituency fundamentally from its reliance on the nuclear and largely Labour vote around Whitehaven and Sellafield.
But they are still likely to be very close contests that Labour certainly believe they can win.
Of course, on paper, the Tories ought to be chalking up one certain victory in Cumbria.
They need a swing of below one per cent to unseat Lib Dem Tim Farron in Westmorland and Lonsdale.
Yet talk to some on the ground and they say the Tories face an uphill battle.
Farron is a wily and committed campaigner, and like so many Lib Dems he's made the most of getting his feet under the table.
In a seat which the Tories hadn't ever lost before 2005, he has a realistic chance of increasing his majority rather than losing.
The Conservative candidate, Gareth McKeever, will hope that isn't the case, but there's no question the Tories need to put the hard yards in there and elsewhere in Cumbria to deliver a national victory.
It's possible they may pile up enough seats in the South and Midlands to make up for any northern shortfall, but it would be best not to leave it to chance.
I'm Richard Moss, the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ's Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
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