Eyes north
I'm on my way up to Edinburgh to witness the dramatic conclusion of an election whose outcome still hangs in the balance.
Who would have guessed it? Who would have dared? A single seat in Scotland - Labour's historic heartland - the home of its next leader - could separate disappointment from disaster. Tonight Gordon Brown can only wait and watch to discover whether that result will deal him a bitter blow just weeks before he fulfils his dream of moving homes in Downing Street.
If the Nationalists do secure a historic first victory and if they can go on to form a governing coalition a Salmond-led Scotland could haunt a Brown-led Britain. A political civil war in Scotland will hardly help Mr Brown's efforts to reach out to Middle England.
If, on the other hand, Labour just holds on to power, the gasp of relief from Edinburgh will be felt hundreds of miles away in Westminster.
General elections are, of course, won and lost not North of the border but in England. Here, Labour's performance was poor - but it was marginally better than the results which preceded Tony Blair's election for a third term. The party is comforting itself that David Cameron's Tories - though clearly on a roll - are only just beginning to gain victories beyond their traditional heartlands.
And yet, they will know that winning a fourth term, led by Gordon Brown and not Tony Blair, up against David Cameron as against Michael Howard is a very very different proposition.
For the first time time in a decade the political future is unpredictable. Tonight it's game on.
I'm 
Comments
Okay, okay, I know it's eyes north now, but can I make a point on projected share of the vote?
According to "³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ projections based on the English council results put the Conservative share of the vote at 40%, the same as last year, with Labour on 27%, one point up, and the Lib Dems on 26% - down a point."
So, after a dreadful year for the government the Tories are exactly where they were a year ago, Labour have actually improved, at the expense of the Lib Dems.
And this is the English share of the vote - Labour did better in Scotland and Wales.
David Cameron must be very disappointed indeed.
Here's a funny thing. According to the info on the 'regions' page, the SNP have won it with 48 seats to 47. That's been the case for about 20 minutes now.
There's also an article published 18 minutes ago on the beeb site but which is now 'disappeared' with only an error page appearing when you follow the link.
SNP edges ahead in Holyrood vote
³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ News, UK - 18 minutes ago
The SNP won 47, Labour came in second with 46; the Conservatives have 17; the Liberal Democrats secured 16; and others came in with three. ...
Hmmm... what's going on here then? Why the big quiet?
(48 to 47) -> (47 to 46)! Doh.
eyes to the north.
Well it seems a great many of us Scots have voted for Alex Salmond to be first minister of Scotland.
Could it be down to the fact that a new generation of voters are aware that in a general election, the North is governed by the South...Ricky
You going to mention anything about the interesting sitution in Wales? No majority of Welsh Labour, the Welsh Lib Dems facing a possible leadership contest with senior Welsh Lib Dems (Peter Black AM calling for a leader with a "fresh mandate" and so on. There is also strong oppisition for Lib Dem council leaders in Wales, and the membership to a coaliton with Labour.....
MC, I think you must be as delusional as Mr Blair, the Conservatives beat their own top end forecast (almost 900 additional seats), Labour lost almost 500 seats, exactly how is this disappointing for the Conservatives?.
Also, after the final analysis of the total vote the Conservatives gained one additional point, so again nothing for Labour to crow about.
It's high time that some of these 'Editors' blogs reflected that the Conservatives trounced Labour and the Lib Dems, if it had been Labour doing the same 10 years ago the headline would have read 'Conservatives Election Day Massacre', actually in that bastion of Labour policy the Guardian it did!.
What strange double standards the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ and it's ilk display!.
On last Thursday night's election results programme there was a somewhat vitriolic debate about the calculation of vote share. The ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ has reported that the Conservative share of the vote was 40%, the same as last year, with Labour on 27%, one point up, and the Lib Dems on 26% - down a point.
But this is to exclude a factor which must be included to arrive at a mathematically correct calculation - surely the point of the exercise.
To extrapolate the results over the whole UK, it is necessary to factor in the percentage of seats in which each party failed to put up a candidate -a technique parties regularly use to spin the results. Labour chose not to put up candidates in approx 65% of seats, the Lib Dem figure was approx 70% and the Conservative about 83%. If these figures are included in the calculation the Conservative /Labour gap is far higher than reported.
To understand how this works - imagine a party only putting up in seats where it expects a high percentage of the vote. The extrapolation of its results in these seats would give it a sky-high national share!
Play the extrapolation game (i) take your favourite party (ii) pick its 10 best results (iii) extrapolate (iv) win the next election!
Shifting demographics, cultural change in Scotlands belt, voting methodologies, presentational style, blah blah, meaningless nonsense, ad nauseaum.
Look, I didn't mention the corporate and the absence of meaningful choice in the poltical system in the same sentence. Do I get published now...?
The ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ - what a fine herd of independent minds...
Dear Nick,
"How far will they get this time, Blue faces and war paint for Salmond as he treks south in the name of Nationalism, "?
Dear Nick,
"How far will they get this time, Blue faces and war paint for Salmond as he treks south in the name of Nationalism, "?