- 25 Aug 06, 08:52 PM
The return of the prime minister from his holidays is one of those dates that marks the political calendar. It's not a particularly significant event in itself but it sends a signal out to the body politic that the earth around Westminster is moving again and it's time to re-enter the fray. The boss is back.
And as ever, Mr Blair comes back to face the consequences of a rather mixed summer. Since the Blairs departed for Barbados, John Prescott has reportedly described George Bush's foreign policy as "crap"; John Reid appears to have taken over the war on terror single handedly; the Labour party has dropped in the polls - nine points behind the Tories according to the latest figures - at the same time as running out of cash; there's been an internal row over whether the government should scrap inheritance tax. And worst of all, the prime minister has had to face accusations that he's got man boobs.
But all this, for the prime minister at least, is of nothing compared to the one big decision facing him: what should he say about his future? Some close to him say he simply has to say something in the next few weeks or at the party conference in Manchester at the end of September.
It is, they say, the only way to close down the endless speculation, rumour and plotting that will otherwise get in the way of anything Mr Blair wishes to do. What this camp wants is not a timetable or anything so crude as a precise departure date. No, they just want a nod and a wink that perhaps this will be his last conference or some other oblique utterance that could satisfy his critics and allow him to get on with the job.
Others close to the PM disagree. They want him to say nothing. Even the slightest hint of a departure date, they say, will make Mr Blair an impotent lame duck, haemorrhaging authority, unable to do anything in his final months of power.
Few know the prime minister's current thinking on this. Distrust all who say they know his mind. What is certain is that Mr Blair's got a packed few weeks lined up, three big speeches to think tanks and the TUC before his conference address. His officials talk of big announcements on social exclusion and education, he's preparing a fresh round of diplomacy on the Middle East before a possible trip to the region next month. The aim of all this activity is to show that he's still got petrol in the tank, that he's "fizzing with ideas" (which his aides say this time every year), that he's got momentum.
The big questions Tony Blair himself would like answered are this: what is the mood of the Labour Party and Labour MPs as they return from their holidays? Do they sense drift at the top or are they prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt once again, as they have done so before.
And what of Gordon Brown? He has maintained an almost monastic silence all summer since the birth of his latest child. What is he up to? What's he planning? Answers on a postcard to No10 Downing Street, please.
It's all shaping up for a fascinating, fluid few months of politics.
