Choreographing a schools' deal
A choreographed climbdown. That was the phrase I used a couple of weeks ago to describe the process whereby the Education Select Committee would produce a report that would call for changes to the government's school reform plan, which ministers would then praise before promising to make the changes called for.
So, it has turned out. When you hear the Education Secretary praise the Select Committee, and its Chairman welcomes her concessions, remember that, in the old phrase, "they would say that wouldn't they" since they jointly plotted the production of a report designed to give the government an elegant means of compromising with its critics.
Climbdown is not a phrase likely to come from the Prime Minister this morning. The worry I'd have if I was a rebel welcoming the language of these concessions is that the government's most radical reformers seem untroubled by any of them.
Tony Blair will be able to say that "the direction of travel" remains the same as before - more freedoms for schools and a greater diversity of people who set up and run schools - and all he's conceded is reassurances and safeguards. So how do should you judge the changes on offer?
On the vexed question of backdoor selection, ministers are promising more policing of the existing admissions code and more information on how it's operating, but not greater council power to do anything other than complain about the outcome. The question for the rebels is whether this will radically alter the way schools can pick pupils now?
On councils' right to set up and run new schools - the biggest concession - councils will still need the permission of ministers to bid and to win a competition in which other groups - charities, voluntary bodies, private sponsors - may be chosen instead by an independent adjudicator. The rebels will ask whether this will really mean many more new council or "community schools"?
What of the Tories? Forget all the talk of double crossing and switching sides at the last minute to catch out the government. David Cameron wants to vote for these reforms. He believes it demonstrates his commitment to a new style of politics. He believes it lays claim for the Tories to being reformers of state education rather than plotters of the best way to escape it. He knows that voting against now would be used to confirm that he's a policy "flip flopper".
Lastly he, and the Prime Minister as it happens, knows that the only question that really matters for Tony Blair's survival is whether he can get his own side to back his reforms.
Now that the rebels are talking about the small print and not opposing the whole thrust of the Bill the likelihood has to be that the PM gets his way with Tory support. Last night some rebels who hailed the headlines of the climbdown reacted warily to the detail.
If Tony Blair does grows confident of victory I suspect he'll look for an artificial device to try to split the Tories and force many of them to vote against his Bill. This chess game still has many moves to go.
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