- Newsnight
- 8 Oct 07, 11:59 AM
As non-election fever dies down, Psephologist Professor John Curtice offers a few observations about the outcome of the past couple of weeks.
Labour's early election project always looked a rather dubious enterprise. On average the party's lead over the Conservatives since Mr Brown became leader was running at around six points. That could well have been enough for a three figure majority. But it was not sufficiently far above the four point lead Mr Brown needed to be sure of emulating the 66 majority Mr Blair won in 2005. Just a percentage point swing or so to the Conservatives over the course of the campaign could have dashed Mr Brown's hopes of securing a 鈥減ersonal mandate鈥.
Continue reading "Partisan excitement no friend of cool calculation"
- Michael Crick
- 14 Aug 07, 06:55 PM
I owe an apology 鈥 of sorts 鈥 to Alastair Campbell. When his diaries came out last month, nobody had much time to read them. On the Monday of publication I managed about 200 pages (out of more than 750), and confined myself to reading about the early years of the Blair government. On Newsnight that night I expressed disappointment. There was nothing very new in the book, I said, and many of the stories sounded quite familiar, I said.
I鈥檝e now read the remaining 550 pages, and done so rather more slowly and carefully than I did the first chunk. I want to modify my verdict. Although it鈥檚 true that there are no great bombshells, the diaries are a valuable addition to the growing history of the Blair years. They paint a fascinating, detailed picture of life at the heart of government 鈥 the tensions, bickering, and the relentless pressure. I was particularly surprised by Blair鈥檚 doubts at so many important moments, and his basic insecurity, so that he would be phoning Campbell every few minutes for reassurance. I can鈥檛 wait for the full versions to be published.
Campbell鈥檚 friendships are interesting, too. He was in regular contact with the former right-wing Conservative and fellow diarist Alan Clark, and also got on well with several other Tories - Nicholas Soames, David Davis and Michael Heseltine. But as a Manchester United fan, and biographer of Alex Ferguson, I was especially interested in Campbell鈥檚 close contacts with the United manager. Ferguson fed Campbell and Blair lots of advice in the run-up to the 1997 election, telling them that Labour was so well ahead in the polls that they should play it safe - as if they were winning a match 2-0 with only a few minutes to go. Let your opponents take all the risks, Ferguson advised, and open themselves up to giving away more goals.
Given the Labour spin doctor鈥檚 close friendship with Ferguson, I鈥檝e always been curious as to why Campbell allowed both men to make essentially the same mistake. Ferguson told the world he would retire as United manager in 2002, but that announcement causing him nothing but grief, and he eventually changed his mind of course with only a few months to go (and is still in power at Old Trafford). Then in the autumn of 2004 Tony Blair famously announced a rough timetable for his departure as Prime Minister. Over the next three years that announcement also caused Blair huge trouble. Like Sir Alex, he deeply regretted it.
The lesson to any man of power: time your departure to come as a complete surprise.
- Newsnight
- 13 Aug 07, 10:14 AM
Gordon Brown's refusal to rule out a snap election means the guessing game will continue - until his conference speech at least. And while the poll dance goes on, so all the parties must pretend they're ready and up for the campaign fight whenever it starts.
Newsnight is offering to help the Prime Minister make up his mind. We'll be taking our giant calendar (see right) to the Labour Party conference in Bournemouth and inviting MPs, activists and pundits to play Guess Gordon's Election Date.
And you can play online too. Simply tell us which day you think Gordon should go to the country - and, assuming you didn't just pick randomly, how you came to your conclusion.
The first possible date for a general election would be October 18. The latest would be mid-June 2010 - that's if the Prime Minister delays asking permission from the Queen until exactly five years after the last national vote. We've only put Thursdays on our calendar - every post-war vote has been on a Thursday - but there's no law against other days.
- Michael Crick
- 9 Aug 07, 03:50 PM
A viewer, Dan Bindman, has written to say that the Conservative candidate in the , Tony Lit, wasn鈥檛 even qualified to stand - at least not under Conservative Party rules.
As everyone knows, Mr Lit only joined the party a few days before he was unveiled as the Tory candidate in Ealing. Dan points out that under the party rules, a candidate must have belonged to the party for at least three months before he can stand for a Parliamentary election.
It鈥檚 all set out in the following document which one can download from the Conservative Party website .
"Do I need to be a member of the Conservative party to be a candidate?" it asks in one of a series of questions and answers. The response: "We require everyone to be a paid-up member of the party of at least 3 months."
Mr Lit made much in his election literature about how he鈥檇 been personally asked by David Cameron to stand as the candidate.
Perhaps if the Tory leader had obeyed his party rules, and let the local association in Ealing pick their contender (in line with his commitment to devolving power), he would have faced a lot less grief.
- Michael Crick
- 9 Jul 07, 10:49 AM
The death of in May meant that, by my reckoning, only three MPs from the famous 1945 election are still alive - all Labour. In the last few months we have lost both Renton and Douglas Dodds-Parker, as well as (who was elected under Neville Chamberlain in 1940, but lost in 1945). Those remaining are Michael Foot, John Freeman, and Francis Noel-Baker (two of whom, Freeman and Noel-Baker, now live overseas).
David Renton, who served as MP for Huntingdon from 1945 to 1979 (handing the seat over the John Major), and then in the Lords until his death, could also boast of being the longest continuous serving Parliamentarian of the last century to have served in both houses - a run of 62 years. So who now takes the title of longest-serving Parliamentarian to have served both houses? At a guess I would say it was , who first elected as an MP at a by-election in 1952, served in the Commons until 1992, and has sat in the Lords ever since. But please let me know if anyone can boast longer continuous service to both houses.
But perhaps the most astionishing record is held by the former Foreign Secretary . He never sat in the Commons, but has sat in the Lords since 1940 - 67 years.
- Michael Crick
- 2 Jul 07, 12:20 PM
Perhaps the biggest surprise in the Cabinet reshuffle was former Newsnight producer , though I can't help feeling it's no longer really a full Cabinet job. Peter Hain, after all, combined Northern Ireland with Wales, and that was before Stormont got going again this May, which presumably means there鈥檚 now a lot less to do. Still, Shaun Woodward has offered to do the job for free. Given that he only quite the Conservative Party less than eight years ago, the recent defection of Quentin Davies (watch his Newsnight appearance here) and the promise of further Tory recruits, perhaps Mr Woodward鈥檚 real role is as minister to encourage defections.
And Gordon Brown displayed a certain ruthlessness in not placing two of his closest allies round the cabinet table. Nick Brown has to make do with being Deputy Chief Whip, having held the job of Chief Whip a few years ago, though he鈥檚 now been made Minister for the North as well, and claims to be happy. And what has Stephen Timms, formerly Brown鈥檚 number two as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, done to deserve demotion? He鈥檚 now lost his Cabinet place to become minister of state at the ludicrously named .
Then we had the rather underwhelming parade of 鈥渁ll the talents鈥 鈥 who鈥檝e agreed to become junior ministers: Sir Mark Malloch Brown, Sir Digby Jones, Sir Ara Darsi and Sir Alan West. They鈥檒l all become lords, though it鈥檚 interesting that they鈥檙e all already knights of the realm, and both Malloch Brown and Darsi had agreed to join the Labour Party. Sir Alan West told me he hadn鈥檛 yet decided whether to join Labour (and given his 成人快手 Office security job he鈥檚 got more pressing things to consider right now), while Digby Jones insists (contrary to what I said on Newsnight on Thursday) that he won鈥檛 be joining Labour, despite Gordon Brown asking him to do so. Indeed, Sir Digby won鈥檛 even say if he鈥檒l vote Labour in future, though once he becomes a lord, his ability to vote will be confined to non-Westminster elections.
The reshuffle of the lower ranks was extremely dull. Indeed, there are so few interesting changes and so few dramatic new names that one almost gets the impression that Gordon Brown was so diverted by the car bombs on Friday that he got fed up with the reshuffle and simply decided most people could carry on doing what they did before. There are a handful of appointments from the 2005 intake, such as (the first Muslim minister), and the former Treasury civil servant (a former girlfriend of Tory Education spokesman David Willetts), but the list is more notable for the unusual number of retreads 鈥 including , and . And despite reducing the number of women in Cabinet from eight to five, Gordon Brown鈥檚 government now contains 38 women in all, which must be an all-time record.
Interesting to see a Manchester United fan, , has been made Minister for Sport (though he also supports Bradford City). I hope he realises it鈥檚 a bit of an end-of-the-line job 鈥 how many sports ministers since the post was created in 1964 have ever gone on to anything higher? None, so far as I can remember. But perhaps Mr Sutcliffe can now do something about securing an honour for one of United鈥檚 all-time greats, , who was also recently voted the greatest Scotland player of all time. In a world where even the most mediocre of footballers seems to get an honour these days, Denis hasn鈥檛 even had an MBE.
- Michael Crick
- 28 Jun 07, 04:46 PM
"So you'll be the first set of brothers in Cabinet since the Stanleys," I teased the other evening, referring to the speculation that he would soon join his brother in the new . Ed Miliband brushed my question off, of course, but then, once the camera was switched off, enquired eagerly: "Who were the Stanleys?"
Answer: the two sons of the seventeenth Earl of Derby, who sat in Cabinet together in 1938, under Neville Chamberlian. Lord (Edward) Stanley, was Dominions Secretary, while his younger brother Oliver Stanley, was President of the Board of Trade. It is not a happy precedent, however, since Lord (Edward) Stanley died only a few months after taking the job.
A more interesting pair of Cabinet brothers served after the war, though not simultanously, since they were on opposite sides of politics. Earl of Listowel briefly served for four months as Secretary of State for India in 1947, during Clement Attlee's post-war Labour Cabinet, whilst his brother John Hare (later Lord Blakenham) held posts in the early '60s, in the Cabinets of Harold Macmillan and Alec Douglas-成人快手.
- Michael Crick
- 27 Jun 07, 12:47 PM
Gordon Brown pledged at the to introduce one-member-one-vote in the party's policy making procedures - the same method, he said, as used to elect the party leadership.
Er, some problem with that surely?
The leadership isn't really elected by one-member-one-vote. All Labour MPs had at least two votes - one as an MP, and one as an ordinary party member - and many of them had other votes as members of affiliated trades unions and socialist societies. Indeed one deputy leadership contender admitted to me that they had eight votes last week - as an MP, a party member, a meber of two unions, and four affiliated societies.
I'd be fascinated to know if anybody could boast of even more votes than that.
- Michael Crick
- 22 Jun 07, 10:46 PM
This week's revelation that Gordon Brown has been came as something of a relief to me personally (though let me stress that I make no comment on whether it's a good or bad thing).
On the day Gordon Brown launched his campaign at the start of May, Newsnight led the programme with a big story on this. Brown had spoken that morning of a "Government of all the talents", and I had asked him whether he was "ruling in, or ruling out", the idea of appointing "ministers from other political parties". He wasn't ruling it in, or ruling it out, Mr Brown replied. I got quite excited, as Brown's comments seemed to tally with things I had been hearing from Scotland, and comments he'd made on the Andrew Marr programme in early January. So Newsnight went big on it that night, with an opening headline asking if Brown was about to appoint Liberal Democrats as ministers (watch my report here).
The story was immediately rubbished, not just in the studio by our own Newsnight political panel (of all the talents), but also live on the programme by the pensions minister James Purnell who suggested we were daft to interpret what Brown had said in this way. And members of Brown's entourage subsequently made it clear I'd misunderstood - he was merely thinking of non-Labour people - people like Chris Patten and Seb Coe - in advisory roles, chairing commissions and that sort of thing.
Strange, I thought, what's so new about that? Don't people like Patten and Coe do those sort of jobs already? I had an uncomfortable few days, wondering if I'd been guilty of terrible misjudgement - and gross hype - in one of my first stories as political editor. It was especially worrying that nobody else in the 成人快手, or the rest of the media, had run with the story. So you can imagine that I felt a certain amusement last night when I heard young Mr Purnell back on Newsnight explaining to viewers what a jolly good idea it was for Mr Brown to approach Lib Dems, an example of his new non-tribal approach to politics etc. etc.
And, as I explained on Wednesday night, it now seems that even if there aren't any Lib Dems in Brown's new government next week, we can expect several ministers who aren't Labour Party members, or who may even be members of other political parties.
Mind you, this isn't going down very well in the Parliamentary Labour Party. Many Labour MPs saw the advent of Brown as their big chance finally to get a government job - feeling they've been unfairly neglected by Tony Blair - whilst existing ministers will be worried about holding on to their jobs. Even if Brown's administration were confined to Labour Party people, I reckon there would be bound to be a lot of disappointed MPs. Extending his ministry beyond Labour is bound to encourage the sense of resentment and disgruntlement.
is Newsnight鈥檚 Politcal Editor 鈥 you can read the recent Telegraph profile of him .
- Michael Crick
- 21 Jun 07, 06:42 PM
John Reid may be the great bruiser and hardman of British politics, but he doesn鈥檛 frighten everyone.
I hear that on the evening of the Scottish elections he and the Scottish First Minister Jack McConnell went for a curry in Wishaw with a few Labour colleagues, ahead of going off to their local election count in Motherwell. After consuming a large main course the waiter asked if anyone would like a pudding. Conscious of the time, they all said 鈥楴o鈥, with the exception of Dr Reid who specified that he鈥檇 like a single ball of vanilla ice-cream. A few minutes later the waiter returned with a bowl containing three balls of ice-cream, and the customary wafer. 鈥淏ut I asked for a single ball,鈥 the 成人快手 Secretary complained. 鈥淔***ing eat it!鈥 the waiter shot back.
- Michael Crick
- 20 Jun 07, 02:49 PM
Labour unexpectedly lost a vote in the House of Lords last night - on the Greater London Authority Bill - despite having won a vote on the same legislation earlier in the evening.
The problem, I'm told, is that in the early evening far too many Labour peers went AWOL to attend the big bash held at Lancaster House to mark Lord Levy's standing down as Tony Blair's Middle East envoy.
As a result the government lost the vote by seven votes. Later in the evening, once most of the Levy revellers had drifted back to the upper chamber, the government majority was restored. Lord Grocott, the Labour chief whip in the Lords is normally a calm and patient man (as one would expect of a former broadcaster). But, last night, I'm told, he "was not best pleased".
- Newsnight
- 30 Mar 07, 05:30 PM
Everyone keeps going on about Gordon Brown having "Macavity the cat-like qualities"; a reference to T.S. Eliot's most elusive of characters. Lord Turnbull did it recently, off the back of which the Guardian . This week it was .
But way back in October last year when there was talk of political subterfuge, efforts to oust Tony Blair and a mass resignation of junior members of government which forced the prime minister to make clear - or clearer - his timetable for leaving office, Newsnight noted the chancellor's absence and made the comparison with Macavity. We even got the actor Bill Paterson to recite a little for us.
Now, we're not ones for saying "pah, we did it first"... we just thought you might all like to enjoy Mr Paterson's mellifluous tones once again. Watch him here.
- Newsnight
- 29 Mar 07, 03:03 PM
On Wednesday's Newsnight the political blogger Guido Fawke's suggested that the 成人快手's Political Editor Nick Robinson was the source of a story he featured on about Downing Street having a second email system. You can see the film and debate here.
Guido Fawkes has since .
Nick Robinson noted Guido's apology on his own blog and gave his views on the blogger's original interview with him featured in the film here.
- Newsnight
- 28 Mar 07, 12:35 PM
On Wednesday's Newsnight controversial political blogger explained why he believes political journalists are short changing the public.
He says because he does not interview politicians he does not have to worry about offending them and can therefore tell his readers more than the mainstream media does. He also challenges Jeremy Paxman over the reading of government statements and so-called "empty chairing".
Watch Guido's film and the lively debate afterward with the Guardian's Michael White - here - and having watched it, tell us what you think below...
- Michael Crick
- 1 Mar 07, 05:22 PM
Why can the media no longer show that photo of David Cameron in the Bullingdon club?
Tonight Newsnight reveals the painting we've specially commissioned, an artistic alternative to the photo that legally we're no longer permitted to broadcast.
Two and a half weeks ago the Mail on Sunday published the first photo of the Conservative leader David Cameron as a member of the Bullingdon Club, the elitist Oxford University dining club whose public school members have become notorious over the years for vandalising restaurants and trashing students' rooms.
The photo, taken around 1986, showed David Cameron and several other Bullingdon members, including the young Boris Johnson, cockily posing for the camera in their 拢1,000 uniforms of blue ties, tails and biscuit-coloured waistcoats. The photo was published in several national newspapers two weeks ago, and commentators suggested that the scene of Mr. Cameron and his toffish chums was far more embarrassing to the Tory leader than the recent story about him taking cannabis at Eton.
But last week Gillman and Soame, the Oxford photographers who took the original Bullingdon picture, and who own the copyright, announced they were no longer giving permission for the media to use the photo (or indeed any other of their library of tens of thousands of student and school photos). The firm insists this decision was taken for commercial reasons and that they were not pressurised to withdraw the picture.
The alternative painting commissioned by Newsnight of the same scene as in the Bullingdon photo was produced by .
And it's not just David Cameron whose been embarrassed in the past by photos in drunken Oxford University dining clubs dredged up from their undergraduate past. This photo of Tony Blair at a St. John's dinner in the 1970s has been published many times before, but tonight, Newsnight reveals for the first time the lower part of the same picture which until now has always been cropped off. We'll show the extraordinary gesture the future Prime Minister was making below the waist - a picture you'll never forget.
- Martha Kearney
- 8 Nov 06, 04:23 PM
So one of the most negative campaigns in recent US political history has come to an end. It certainly provided great material for David Grossman's piece last week (watch it here).
Although attack ads aren't allowed in Britain, the political parties certainly study what works on the other side of the Atlantic and we tend to see it in posters. Remember Demon Eyes? Or Michael Howard as Fagin?
Dave the Chameleon was thought to be a bit too cute. One of my favourite US ones was when Republicans let loose a bunch of chickens at a Democrat barbecue because the candidate was "too chicken" to take part in a debate. Of course that idea was copied here by the tabloids when a giant chicken followed Tony Blair in 1997 because he didn't want to debate. A rival newspaper hired a fox to go after the chicken.
A giant chicken was also deployed when Conservative candidate Nick Hawkins went on "a chicken run" to find a safe seat. Then there were the at the last election...
I am wasted on Newsnight when I could be writing a thesis about Giant Animals in Modern British Political Discourse. Anyway why don't you try your hand at a British version of an attack ad? Plenty of material these days.
- Martha Kearney
- 10 Oct 06, 01:23 PM
If you have always thought that Jeremy and I just have friendly little unrehearsed chats in the studio, I am sorry to shatter your illusions. There is also no Father Christmas.
After Monday night's strange events, I thought I had better explain how it all works. A combination of time constraints (for God's sake, Martha, surely you can explain the entire government criminal justice policy in two minutes) and need to play in clips (that two minutes must include a clip of the minister and the opposition parties) means that some kind of orchestration beforehand is needed.
So I usually provide Jeremy (and more obedient presenters) with some questions in advance.
On Monday these were entitled "Idiot's Guide to the Two-Way". Maybe that was a red rag to a bull but anyway he got the order completely wrong and chaos ensued.
Perhaps you think the whole format is ridiculous anyway as one Tory backer told me at their conference in Bournemouth last week: "What's the point in journalists interviewing each other?" he understandably wanted to know.
I tried to explain that in political journalism you are often told useful and illuminating information "off the record" and a studio chat is the best way of getting that across. Well, sometimes.
Click here to watch the two-way
- Martha Kearney
- 2 Oct 06, 11:36 PM
So what's the big talking point here at the Conservative conference? Well, apart from the Tellytubby style set (see our menu shot tonight) and rows about tax, the bars and cafes are filled with battle stories from the front or "How I Got My Conference Pass". People have queued for hours and hours yesterday and today in order to get in. Children's Commissioner Sir Al Aynsley-Green, Liberty director Shami Chakrabarti, former women's cricketer Rachael Heyhoe-Flint and several MPs were among those forced to wait. Environmental campaigner Zac Goldsmith missed a speaking slot at a conference fringe event when he was delayed. And the party chairman Francis Maude has had to cancel a fringe in order to hold an emergency meeting with the police. Shadow Cabinet ministers David Willets and Andrew Lansley were stuck outside (which doesn't say much for their profiles). Rumours are rife that Mr Lansley will have to sleep in his car because his hotel is inside the cordon.
If you do get stuck , then you wait inside the Pavilion theatre where there is a risk you will become an audience for a speech whether you want to be or not. Iain Duncan Smith the former leader decided that if people couldn't get in, he would bring his fringe meeting to them. IDS takes socially excluded message to the conference's excluded is the headline on one Tory website.
One line of spin is that the reasons for the delays is because the Tories are victims of their own success - there are 2,000 more people here than last year. Not sure that will wash with the increasingly restive lines.
- Martha Kearney
- 27 Sep 06, 07:53 PM
Once, politicians used to practise their speeches by filling their mouths full of pebbles to practise voice projection. Things have changed a bit since Demosthenes' time.
Nowadays politicians practise on autocue the night before in the conference hall. One year we all got a preview of Iain Duncan Smith's speech which was accidentally broadcast on our ringmain. The quiet man had cranked up the volume by mistake.
So as a form of political communication have speeches dated a bit over two and half thousand years? An old fashioned tub thumping style doesn't work well on television. Neil Kinnock who was one of the country's best orators in a hall was often disastrous on TV. His delivery was once compared to a tortoise trying to reach orgasm. And you must remember the Sheffield rally.
Continue reading "What's in a speech?"
- Martha Kearney
- 27 Sep 06, 05:26 PM
Day Three in the Big Conference House and the strains are already beginning to show.
You may know that there is a certain amount of condition between ourselves and the Today programme.
On Monday () they were bombed by pigeon droppings. Now in a spirit of oneupmanship we've been hit by bed bugs.
Our cameraperson Julie - veteran of many war zones - was a bit surprised to be attacked by bedbugs in Salford. Morale was further lowered when the team arrived at work this morning slightly jaded after intense late night political analysis in the Midland Hotel bar to find a brass band practising loudly in our newsroom.
See how we suffer for you.
Continue reading "Bed Bugs and brass bands"
- David Grossman
- 25 Sep 06, 05:34 PM
Students of labour trivia will instantly notice that Cherie鈥檚 alleged comment (鈥渢hat鈥檚 a lie鈥) is exactly the same phrase as that octogenarian peace protester Walter Wolfgang shouted at Jack Straw last year. You鈥檒l remember his fate. The Labour party membership has rather taken him to their hearts and voted him onto the ruling National Executive Committee.
So why wasn鈥檛 Cherie slung out by Labour stewards this year? Well apart from being the wife of the PM, this year Labour has a far more nuanced approach to crowd control. We understand there are five levels of disturbance, each of which will elicit a different grade of response. I don鈥檛 know what they are, but here鈥檚 a guess:
Level 1 鈥 looking bored
Level 2 鈥 eating crisps or other noisy food
Level 3 鈥 booing
Level 4 鈥 swearing
Level 5 鈥 suggesting Gordon Brown may not have the electoral appeal to win Labour a fourth term.
Whatever happens I can't see Cherie being the membership's choice for the NEC next year.
- David Grossman
- 25 Sep 06, 03:30 PM
Has Cherie stolen the show? 鈥 I can report the press here in a bit of a frenzy looking for Cherie Blair 鈥 it appears she has taken Gordon鈥檚 speech a bit badly. Especially the bit where he described how well TB and GB worked together.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 a lie!鈥 said Cherie as she headed for the exit of the hall.
There is an alternative version from Downing Street that Cherie really said 鈥渃an I get by?鈥
Take your pick. Or are both versions wrong? What else might everyone鈥檚 favourite human rights QC have said as she left the hall?
- Martha Kearney
- 9 Aug 06, 05:34 PM
We are all getting a lot more than normal because of the Middle East crisis; clearly an issue on which people do have strong feelings.
I perhaps should make it clear that generally we aren't getting secret instructions either from the Israeli government or Hezbollah as some correspondents have suggested.
In fact the only words in my earpiece come from Digital Dorothy. We no longer have a human PA in the gallery to give us timings because it's been automated.
Let me tell you a trade secret. Digital Dorothy who murmurs "two minutes to end of item" is, in fact, Fiona Bruce. We do obey.
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