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Why is it the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ's news reports on today's IPCC report omit an utterly crucial point by which its accuracy should be judged?

Namely, that this new report downgrades estimates of the effect of global warming by a massive 25%, from the IPCC's last report in 2001.

The downgrade is quite reasonably explained by the IPCC as a 'refinement', due to better data being obtained.

But the IPCC have effectively admitted that their previous view was inaccurate to an astonishing degree.

So why should we take this new report so seriously?

Politicians take note: it's certainly very far from a licence to ramp up taxes purportedly to save the planet.

It's shocking the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ is not mentioning this vital piece of information so that this new IPCC can be more appropriately judged.

ETHICAL MAN:

Very good informative & entertaining insight too various factors in alternative lifestyle & carbon impact.

Q. what would have been the impact of bio-fuels been on the farmers distribution costs?

vikingar

Our way of life will have to change, as your programme showed, but if the per-human CO2 output reduces by 10% and the humans producing CO2 increase by 20%, aren't we 10% worse off? I mention this, because your programme didn't mention the word 'population' once.

More left wing ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ nonsense. Who cares about Global Warming? If the politicians are serious about it, then close down Heathrow and Gatwick Airports. Ban all cars and make everyone ride a bike.

Won't happen. Just like bird flu, it's another left wing media frenzy for underemployed Guardian readers at the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ and other media organisations.

No one else cares about Global Warming either. If they did then Greenpeace would be running the Country. Guess what? They ain't.

Compare this 2001 ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ report:

(temp rise estimate: 1.4 - 5.8C)

...to today's report:

(temp rise estimate: 1.8 - 4C)

Of course, this new estimate, if accurate, would still represent a significant rise.

But variation of the order of 25% suggests that there should be a reasonable level of doubt about what we're being told by the IPCC on climate change.

Why is this not coming over in your reports?

climate change has happened over millions of years with the world getting warmer and cooler. in the year 1000a.d.grape vines were growing as far north as york and when the vikings discovered greenland,thats why they named it so. the population in 1000a.d.was a lot smaller than it is now.the pop.has exploded in the last century. in 2000a.d.the pop. was estimated to be 6billion.at the start of 2007a.d.it was estimated to be 6.6billion.each person breathes in air and breathes out part carbon dioxide.has this been taken into account by the climate change scientists or are they afraid to tell us the truth on the carbon impact of population growth.

Everyone blaming everyone else while mother nature floods and blows us apart with our own selfishness. How will our greatgrand children hold us in contemp for all the terrible prblems our adiction to insatiable greed to needs that need not be. How pathetic and lacking we were - busy killing with hatred while slowly heat-flooding our future.

The IPCC report you are referring to is the Summary for Policymakers. It was written by bureaucrats and government appointees. The scientific report it supposedly summarises will not be released until May, during which time the scientific report will be edited to conform to the Summary for Policymakers.
This process is unique to the IPCC, and reflects the fact that this is a political document, not a scientifc one. It is designed to maximise PR value, and to minimise the risk of anyone pointing out where the bureaucrats have edited the science.
Tonight's Newsnight was effectively reading out a Friends of the Earth press release. I very much hope that, by next Friday, you will do a program on the gaping flaws in this highly unscientific report.
In other words, do some real journalism.

I'm slightly confused by Susan Watts stating that atmospheric CO2 will reach "unprecedented levels".

We aren't making any carbon, merely moving it around from one place to another. If the coal, gas and oil has its origins in ancient vegetable matter (I think that's what I was taught) then all we are doing is liberating ancient carbon back into the atmosphere from whence it came.

Hence I suggest it is impossible for CO2 levels to reach unprecented levels, they can only be restored to previous high levels.

Seven-Lean-Years

PROPHECIES

UNITED-STATES

“ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER GOVERVOR of CALIFORNIA will get a
shot
in the evening at a party at his house.”

“United States Leaders will fail because of the constant rises. In
prices
the nation will turn against its government. The price of oil in the USA
market will be very high./Revolution/”

“The USA will leave IRAQ with its full army but before it one of
Its allied forces will be destroyed.”

“San Francisco city will be big earthquake. /death, ruin, sorrow/”

“Gulf of Mexico, Houston, Dallas city will be big great tornado. /ruin,
sorrow, sad news/ 2006 year”

“New York city will be terrorized by a “MONSTER” under the name
of /Godzilla/ awfully.”

“United-States Seven Lean Years 2006-2012/scorching/”

“LANDCE AMSTRONG will enter the VUELTA.”

EUROPE

“The Stars of the big European alliance will shake from
East and the army set up won’t be able to cope with the situation.”

“European Union rivers canals and lakes must be filled up with
Water because in spring there will not be floods and the Seven
Lean Years will start 2006 year.”

“Fill up the supplies of European Union with wheat because the Seven
Lean Years will start soon.2006-2012.”

“In European Union there will be no flood because the snow will melt
slowly.
Then the seven lean years will start there will be little rain consisting
of acid the wind will stop, and the temperature constantly will be above
40 Celsius. There will be draught for seven years 2006-2012”

ENGLAND

“DAVID BECKHAM will disappear for weeks, but he will be found at the
button of a cave.”

ITALY

“An attack against Milano a new attack against the Hungarian,
contingent ‘Means’ the beginning of the Seven Lean Years, will
happen
very close to each other.2006.year”

LIBERTY-POPE

“The future Pope will be chosen from the, French Nation. The Popes
have lived so far under his name were not lucky./PETER/
His will be the XII-TH house of the Priest of evening mass his double
top, Coffin will sink under water while on the, surface everything was
reduced to ruins. A priest is only a priest, but GOD is GOD.”

“Memory VI.-SYXTUS sink ship”.

RUSSIA

“From Saturn the Moon 15degrees at nine in the evening then death
comes.
From east through URAL Mountain an army will cross-never seen by
human history.2010.year “

ISRAEL-O-ISRAEL

“In the country where 8000 RUSSIAN emigrants arrived in the past
BOMB will be hid by the side of rails and the points will explode it when
the train gets there”

HUNGARY

“In Hungary the Hungarian Nation will mourn. People will save up for a
wrath the streets.
The Hungarian nation will never be able to take revenge for the loss,
far away from Europe.2006.year”

“In Hungary the transdanubia which used to be full with forests and
green fields 300Years ago by the end of the, Seven Lean Years will be
deserted 2006-2012.”

“The opposition will spend money they the got back on overthrowing
the present government. In Budapest there will be revolutionary
atmosphere on people.2006.year”

“The Danube’s bed will break in while building metro 4 but the first
dam
will take up the water.”

SOUTH-AMERICA

“From ASIA and the South-pole the heavy rains will reach South-
America. Argentina will be washed away twice while Brasilia once.”

RED-SEA

“In SLOVAKIA in the high Tatra the, csorba Lake will ebb to half of its
size, than nowadays the RED seas ebbing will, grow to one and a
³ó²¹±ô´Ú.´Ï

ASIA

“In CHINA the big dam being built will break. Flooding rivers.”

“The BMW Company will leave FORMULA one.”

PLANET

“A small comet is reaching our planet which will go between the EARTH
and the MOON. Between its head and tail there will be a big distance.”

GOD

“A New variety of fish will populate the earth, huge whales which
people have never seen so far they are not produced through the
EVOLUTION.
If you want to know where they are from-look up the sky. I thank GOD
for seeing GENESIS!”

USA

“When the lights of the World Trade Center can be, seen again an
Attack will be made against Hollywood. it will happen like a Texas
western film.2011.year”

“A curios man will read it. A wise man will use it.”

“I do not know anything more special than foreseeing the future
independently of time and space but there is nothing more frightening”

“LION will overwhelm the TIGER”

2006-------2007-------2008-------2009-------2010-------2011-------2012

SEVEN------- LEAN -------
YEARS

Welcome: N-N-1503

IÂ’m name: ZOLTAN SZABO
City: Debrecen
Country: Hungary

Stuart Coster: you're right, the IPCC temperature range has changed. This means that the IPCC have refined their estimate of what the likely change in temperature will be - they've managed to narrow down the uncertainty.

The range will probably get narrower and narrower as the century progresses, and as the main uncertainties (principally relating to population growth and the effect of clouds) get ironed out.

There's no problem here at all - the new estimate is completely consistent with the old one. Here's a quick explanation:

Imagine you're 100 yards away from a stranger, and you try to estimate how tall they are. Using visual clues like the height of people around them, you reckon they're somewhere between 5'8 and 6'2. Now you move a little closer, and you see that they're a bit taller than you thought, so you revise your estimate up to 6'0 to 6'2.

Your new range is completely consistent with the old one, only it's better, because there's a smaller range of uncertainty. This, in essence, is what the IPCC has done.

This is a simplistic argument, but it captures the basic principle. If anyone knows a good website which provides a better explanation then I'd be glad to see it.

However, this highlights an important point: most people have a very poor grasp of scientific uncertainty. For this reason the media usually avoids discussing it, so when it pops up in a report like this one it's not surprising that there's some confusion.

Call me cynical, however when I see George Doubblya getting concerned about climate change I smell a rat! The west is merely concerned with the balance of future power which may be held in the hands of oil rich countries such as Iraq.
The U.S. is encouraging fuel efficiency while Britain is going back to the future with a revival of nuclear energy.

My view is that ideological change shall alleviate our future woes...

To save the planet we need to consume less and develope smart ways to do so.It is folly to think that capitalist organisations will provide the solutions as growth of profit to survive is the no 1 objective within capitalism.

Unowned organisations need to get into serious business to replace their capitalist counterparts.

Maybe organisations like Geenpeace, Amnesty and the Red Cross will compete significantly in future consumer markets.

Green peace may supply fuel and compete with BP, Friends of the Earth run supermarkets and compete with Tesco.. maybe Amnesty move into media/publishing etc.

As they generate economic power and momentum they can make political donations replacing the capitalist donations which pay for and influence political decisions.

In addition, the unowned organizations with wealth/power at their disposal can create influential marketing messages for us, explaining that to be responsible is to be happy, and reverse the baloney that to consume more is to be happy.

The consumers will choose the unowned/charitable market suppliers, the consumers will be marketed at/encouraged to consume less and may become more satisfied in their lives within a world which will be fit for their children to live in.

The unowned producing companies can feed people who are starving to death in the poverty regions of the planet. They can fund serious programs to educate the people in areas of conflict so that conflicting people can see that we are all the same - world peace tell me why not!

There may be a talent exodus from capitalist organisations into the new unowned company framework as individuals realise the costs of capitalism.

Within the new framework the unowned companies would be expected to subdivide and compete with one another to ensure best service for consumers.

Consumers will be ‘all powerful’ directing their purchases to those suppliers which, 1 supply product which cares for the planet, and 2, which direct profit into projects to encourage global cooperation and harmony.

An open market must be retained with free individual decisions.

Problem solved!

Its all very well for the people who go on about it to give themselves a slap on the back and get a sense righteous out of it, but to be realistic the only thing thats gonna stop it is unpopular govermental action, and the glitch with democracy is, whos gonna vote for a party that promotes it self on an unpopular manifesto.Human beings are inherintley selfish creates, as are all. the need to survive and prosper is strong, no matter the cost, hence the state the were in.

The battle for the survival of the human race is will not be decided on if we defeat climate change and cut our polluting (cus we wont) but how we cope with it, can we adapt and survive ( at a greatly diminished population level ) or do we just die out, bar the few rich/priveledged, cos when climate change starts for real, i doubt if any government will help another at the detriment of their own people, and thats probably whats gonna be needed, the west is gonna have to take a hit in living stardards to help the rest of the world, and sadly i doubt its gona happen.