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Safely locked?

Mark D'Arcy | 10:54 UK time, Wednesday, 22 September 2010

This week's rather depressing figures on UK public borrowing (£5.3bn in August) underline the importance of the Treasury Select Committee's hearing to confer its approval of Institute for Fiscal Studies supremo Robert Chote, as the new head the new Office for Budget Responsibility.

The OBR - the new quango which is supposed to ensure governments don't run amok with the national credit card - will make independent assessments of the economy and the national finances and conduct its own forecasts; so, for example, a Chancellor can't make his figures add up by assuming some absurdly optimistic rate of economic growth, which magically brings the national accounts back into the black.

In truth, the hearing was a bit of a love-in, with committee members all but tickling Mr Chote's tummy. But this is a serious appointment - even if few people yet appreciate quite how powerful this guy could be in the right circumstances. If Mr Chote and the three person Budget Responsibility Committee he will chair decide, one day, that the Chancellor is not doing enough about cutting public borrowing, or perhaps is doing too much, or is fudging the figures so we can't tell what's really happening, they are supposed to raise a majestic hand and issue a rebuke.

The expectation is that ministers will then have to change tack, or face the wrath of the financial markets - and perhaps a Greek style debt crisis. So we're talking about an organisation and an individual whose key function is to do the right thing in extremis.

So Mr Chote and the OBR will have to be pretty fireproof, personally and procedurally. Ultimately their job is to face down a government which may well be under huge pressure - and providing the necessary protection is where Parliament comes in. At the moment the OBR is operating on a provisional basis.

But in due course there will be legislation to enshrine its independence. And already MPs and peers who're concerned about these matters are preparing to ensure that the legislation contains no hidden get-out clauses or trap-doors through which undue influence can be exerted.

The Chancellor has promised the Treasury Select Committee a "double lock" on the independence of Mr Chote and his successors; they have to approve the appointment and, if it ever comes to that, the sacking of the chair and other key figures in the OBR. So a key aim for Parliamentarians will be to ensure these guarantees are written into the forthcoming Office for Budget Responsibility Bill. It may be a rather tekky concern, but you can bet keen eyes will be fixed on the small print of the bill in the City of London.

* Other forthcoming Bills: Justice Minister Tom McNally - the Lib Dem Leader in the Lords - repeated his promise of a bill to reform the law of libel at the Lib Dem Conference. A draft is expected in the new year.

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