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Election 07

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Paddy Paradesdown

  • Mark Devenport
  • 18 Apr 07, 03:17 PM

Peter Hain is currently giving evidence to the House of Commons NI Affairs Committee on the latest developments here. The Secretary of State used the occasion to confirm the appointment of the former Liberal Democrat leader Lord Ashdown as the new chair of a review into parading.

As a former Marine Commando, Paddy Ashdown has a bit of prior history when it comes to marching - he led a company of soldiers who arrested the former SDLP leader John Hume during a civil rights demonstration.

The new review, promised at St Andrews, holds out the possibility of ending the stand off between the Orange Order and the Parades Commission and, maybe, further easing tensions on the ground.

Although Lord Ashdown's name is the one guaranteed to capture the headlines, there are other interesting characters on his review team, including the Rev. Mervyn Gibson, formerly of the Loyalist Commission and Sean Murray of the Springfield Residents Action Group. Although the government supplied biographical notes don't mention it Sean "Spike" Murray was well known to have been a senior member of the IRA in West Belfast. So could this help guarantee that the new review will crack the parading nut?

Furniture Removals

  • Betsan Powys
  • 18 Apr 07, 03:13 PM

Blogging silence over.

The people who understand these things tell me my furniture has fallen down, which means posting for you and me has been a bit like wading through election leaflets - a lot of pain and bar charts for little gain and enlightenment.

The information you'd usually see to the side of this post - how to comment, lists of posts etc - is still way down at the bottom of the page but if you scroll down, you'll find it is there and in some sort of working order.

So is it true that you traditional Labour voters out there are too embarrassed to tell your friends that you may stick with Labour this time round - a bit like the "shy Tories" when Mrs Thatcher was on her way out? But that when it comes to it and you squeeze into that voting booth on May 3rd you'll vote Labour on the Q.T. - a bit like the Tories did when John Major was on his way in? Opinion polls predicted a hung parliament in 1992 but John Major scraped a workable majority.

I'm not suggesting Rhodri Morgan reaches the dizzy heights of a majority of any kind but I do wonder just how many "shy Labour voters" we have in Wales.

And I'm not the only one to wonder.

Special Advisers - or SPADs - do what it says on the tin. They advise and like us, they'll be doing the maths too. What would it mean if Labour decided to plough on and form a minority government? IF they scrape 25 seats or even more could they face all that whipping of AMs to turn up to vote, not to mention the constant deal-making? Mind you, it's only a few days a week they might be thinking ...

Might they prefer that thought to a messy coalition and an even messier divvying up of cabinet posts? How little would the Lib Dems accept this time? Economic Development's not likely to be up for grabs after all. And Culture again? Surely not.

Then again the maths - and your votes - may push Labour under 25 seats and to that 'what if' territory where even the Lib Dems couldn't save them. We're still wondering what happens then. SPADs? I can't believe there are no plans on the drawing board?

Meanwhile some candidates were taking it a bit easier than they might have done over the weekend. When asked on Sunday evening (before the record button was pressed on the 成人快手's debate programme) what he'd been up to that afternoon, Conservative candidate Jonathan Morgan admitted he'd been cooking up a barbie for his in-laws. A sign Cardiff North is in the bag? And Jonathan Austin, Labour candidate in Ynys Mon certainly spent Saturday in ... Amlwch? Holyhead? ... No, in Cardiff. Leaving the door ajar for another candidate perhaps? Surely not.

Knock if you dare

  • Brian Taylor
  • 18 Apr 07, 02:56 PM

For political canvassers, trudging round the streets, life used to be relatively straightforward. Tough on the shoe leather, certainly. Rough on the voice (and, for some, the conscience.)

But, in reality, there was only one strict rule. Don鈥檛 disturb a household during 鈥淐oronation Street鈥 or when there鈥檚 a big football match on the telly.

But what do they do now? There鈥檚 football on the telly all the time. 鈥淕ood evening, sir, I hope you can spare a few moments to discuss our new policy on ferret taming.鈥

鈥淐an you come back later, lad, it鈥檚 Tayport versus Downfield in the Eastern Junior League. It鈥檚 the decider.鈥

Or the soaps. These days our gallant canvassers set out with a manifesto, a pencil - and a copy of the Radio Times.

鈥淪kip that one, Bert, they鈥檒l be watching River City.鈥

鈥淕ive it half an hour, it鈥檚 the rerun of Eastenders.鈥

So, more and more, parties are turning to phone canvassing, pestering the voters at all hours.

Plus they try to target their messages. No more the 50-second shout on the doorstep, bawling out your policy on council tax before the door slams in your face.

Find out the voter鈥檚 interests and obsessions first - then send them a targeted leaflet.

In these Holyrood elections, all parties are saying that the number of undecided voters is substantial - greater than before.

One political strategist suggested to me that women, in particular, had yet to be convinced. That was, it was argued, because women were more inclined to weigh the detail of policies in the balance.

No surprise, therefore, that both the Liberal Democrats and Labour are majoring on family issues today - issues that are, by custom and repute, designed to appeal to women.

The LibDems, for example, believe that such sectoral campaigning can give them the edge in a tight contest where every vote counts. Look for the others doing the same.

Still on the LibDems, they do seem adamant that they won鈥檛 concede a referendum on independence - even a multi-option one.

Three reasons for this. Firstly, they don鈥檛 want independence. They鈥檙e against it. Secondly, appearing to give ground to the SNP now would cut the feet from their candidates in Gordon and elsewhere. Thirdly, their MPs are virulently against the idea - and have been making that known.

Still doesn鈥檛 rule out the idea, entirely. It鈥檚 still about momentum. Privately, senior LibDems accept that if the SNP are the largest party, they would have a moral claim to a share in government.

It would seem perverse to deny that prospect. Right now, though, they鈥檙e challenging the SNP to dump the referendum. If it comes to it, wonder who鈥檒l blink first.

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