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Election 07

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Gerry's tease

  • Mark Devenport
  • 17 Apr 07, 05:47 PM

Interesting in which he sketches in some of the background to his historic meeting with Ian Paisley on March 26th. He talks about rejecting Peter Hain's attempts to broker an extended Easter holiday for the new Executive to facilitate the DUP's doubters.

The Sinn Fein president also teases his readers on the topic of what kind of contacts with the DUP preceded the meeting in the Stormont members' dining room. During the weekend prior to the meeting, when we have reported proxy talks took place inside Stormont Castle, Gerry Adams writes "it's too close to the events to detail this part of the negotiations at this time. Suffice to say, good work was done. Particularly by Martin McGuinness". Elsewhere he again draws a veil over the proceedings, noting "the process of peacemaking is just like that. An injudicious revelation here or there can cause more trouble than its worth."

So were the last minute contacts really "proxy" talks? And whose blushes is Gerry sparing? There were, of course, stories of contacts between the two sides going back as far as the Leeds castle talks of 2004, but these rumours were never substantiated. What will the history books record?

Should they, shouldn鈥檛 they?

  • Brian Taylor
  • 17 Apr 07, 05:27 PM

Isn鈥檛 Alex Salmond going out of his way to be pleasant to Nicol Stephen. In debates, he鈥檚 deferred to him regularly. 鈥淎s Nicol said鈥.鈥 鈥淧icking up Nicol鈥檚 point鈥︹ One would almost think he hopes to share power with him.

Certainly, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats meet at many points. Low business taxation for economic growth, community policing and sentencing. They both want a Local Income Tax (although I think one or two senior LibDems harbour considerable doubts.)

Still, though, that big snag. The SNP demands a referendum on independence within a four-year term as a core element in any partnership agreement.

The LibDems say no - they won鈥檛 facilitate such a move if the pro-independence parties have failed to win a Parliamentary majority.

Stalemate? Not entirely. Could the issue be kept outwith the partnership agreement - as happened to student fees in 1999 and PR for local government in 2003?

In my view, no. For the SNP, this is their reason for existing, not a policy option. Equally, the Liberal Democrats believe that repealing the Act of Union is a little more fundamental than any manifesto dispute.

So could there be a multi-option referendum? Voters would be asked to choose between the present set-up, independence - and a Parliament with more powers.

When new model Alex Salmond is at his most accommodating, he hints that he might be prepared to concede this in negotiations - while his substantial preference would be for a straight vote on independence.

So, could this tempt the Lib Dems? After all, they regularly point out that Devolution Plus, a Parliament with more clout, is apparently the favoured option of voters in polls.

It might, it might. But they might also glance at a study by the Scottish Council for Social Research. In their Social Attitudes Survey, they asked about independence v devolution - but alongside attitudes to extra powers.

They found crossover which might alter the picture.

Their survey suggests that 29 per cent back independence - AND want more powers; 27% either support devolution but don鈥檛 want greater powers OR don鈥檛 want Holyrood at all; only 24 % support devolution AND want greater powers.

Depends how you count the outcome in any referendum, I suppose. First past the post? Independence wins. Single Transferable Vote? More powers might come through.

Either way, this survey might help to explain the continuing Lib Dem reluctance to countenance a referendum.

Elections change things, though. Politics is about momentum.If the SNP are palpably the winners - the largest party, for example - then it would be harder still for the Lib Dems to say no.

Using all his talents

  • Mark Devenport
  • 17 Apr 07, 11:05 AM

Just watched pictures of David Cameron welcoming David Trimble on board to the Conservative party. Mr Cameron dodged questions about a front bench job for Lord Trimble, saying only that he now had a growing number of talents at his disposal and he would ensure his party used all those talents. The former Ulster Unionist leader indicated his intention to continue to discuss the UK's constitutional settlement, by attacking the SNP's pursuit of independence as very dangerous. It will be interesting to watch, for example, the debate between Lord Trimble, who believes all MPs should be able to vote on all matters, and those Tories who want Scottish MPs banned from voting on English issues. Earlier on Good Morning Ulster Lord Trimble also criticised the dual mandate which continues to allow DUP and SDLP MPs to sit in the Stormont Assembly. So would Lord Trimble like a particular role on constitutional affairs, or legal matters or does the former Nobel prize winner wish to range further afield in terms of foreign affairs?

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