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Election 07

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Les Nationalistes triomphent

  • Mark Devenport
  • 9 Mar 07, 04:46 PM

A French speaking friend tells me that Le Monde has depicted this election has a triumph for nationalists. It reports surges by both the nationalist Sinn Fein and the nationalist DUP. That should sort out any worries about the designation system...

Dr in the House

  • Mark Devenport
  • 9 Mar 07, 04:27 PM

Kieran Deeney has won the battle of the doctors over the SDLP's Jo Deehan in West Tyrone. He survived thanks to transfers from both the UUP and the SDLP. The SDLP will have to look long and hard at how three candidates did not get a single seat. Between them they got 6018 votes - more than the quota of 5923. Would a single candidate have squeezed out Dr Deeney? Now we shall never know...

Executive Outcomes

  • Mark Devenport
  • 9 Mar 07, 03:47 PM

Still awaiting the final picture, but here's my latest permutation after touching base with more political sources

It's thought the Ulster Unionist George Savage will take the last seat in Upper Bann, not Sinn Fein's Dessie Ward. The SDLP's Thomas Burns is thought to be likely to hold the last seat in South Antrim, whilst Kieran Deeney may survive in West Tyrone.

If this is the case it would give us an Assembly as follows

DUP 36
SF 28
UU 18
SDLP 16
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1
Kieran Deeney 1

This would translate into an executive which (not counting the First and Deputy First Minister) would have 4 DUP ministers, 3 Sinn Fein ministers, 2 UUP ministers and 1 SDLP minister.

The order of the picks would be as follows

1st Pick DUP - Finance
2nd Sinn Fein
3rd DUP
4th UUP
5th SDLP
6th Sinn Fein
7th DUP
8th SF
9th DUP
10th UUP

Almost there

  • Mark Devenport
  • 9 Mar 07, 02:42 PM

The Chief Electoral Officer Douglas Bain is in favour of electronic counting of votes. But what will that do to 成人快手 Election Specials? Titles roll - Noel Thompson reads his introduction - welcome to our not very extended coverage - here's the election, press the button, there's your MLAS, here's your Executive, now it's time for Neighbours.

Just like the televised lottery we'll have to jazz the thing up with bands playing their latest single or an excerpt from a new show at the Opera House.

Of course after pioneering the results text service, we shall like our counterparts on ITV, have to induce viewers to enter election competitions. Although we seem to have contrived to be the only broadcasters not making any money on such services lately...

So what's the latest - on the 1.30 programme I suggested the following scenario

DUP 37 - 39
SF 28 - 29
UUP 17
SDLP 15 - 17
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1
Kieran Deeney - Maybe 1

The room for manoeuvre is in Upper Bann (where I think SF will probably take the last seat) South Antrim (where the SDLP is battling the DUP) and West Tyrone (where Drs Deeney and Deehan are still on a waiting list).

If the SDLP win both their battles they would draw level with the UUP. Under the tie breaking rule, the SDLP's total vote would be taken into account - as that's higher than the UUP they would get 2 ministries. If they don't win either of their dog fights they will trail the UUP and will only get one ministry.

So this is why those last seat battles are so vital...

We're Back

  • Mark Devenport
  • 9 Mar 07, 10:13 AM

After minimal sleep, two appearances on Good Morning Ulster, one on Radio Foyle, boiling eggs for two small people and one drop off at primary school, I am now back in the saddle for more election coverage.

Sidney Elliot's throat seems a little soothed. He is now talking smoothly through the trends illustrated by recent elections. Sidney informs me that I have promoted him as he is a Doctor not a Professor.

I now intend to start a "Sidney for Prof" campaign. Given that his colleague Paul Bew recently got a peerage I think it's the least we can do for Sidney. How about a special Chair of Laryngitic Political Studies, focussing on those who have been forced to talk about politics whilst they have sore throats. I feel a doctorate coming on comparing Sidney's plight with the challenge facing the SDLP leader Mark Durkan when he had to launch his manifesto the day after shouting himself hoarse at the Ireland England rugby match.

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