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Election 07

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Our New Assembly?

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 09:51 PM

Everybody's at it - politicians, backroom boys, government officials. They are all trying to project the latest results forwards to try to work out what the shape of the new Assembly and, potentially, the new Executive will be. Being definitive at this stage is hard as there are too many permutations so far as those sixth seat battles is concerned.

But fortune favours the brave - so here's my best guess

DUP 38
Sinn Fein 28
SDLP 17
UUP 16
Alliance 7
Greens 1
PUP 1

I am told that if that were to be the outcome it would give us an Executive which (not counting the First and Deputy First) would be

DUP 4 ministries
Sinn Fein 3
SDLP 2
UUP 1

Health warning - all this may change as the counts unfold.....

Teatime update

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 06:21 PM

Have just grabbed a bag of crisps during a half an hour break. The DUP are gleeful about the results so far with an average 4.4% gain. Once again the UUP are the losers with a 7.6% fall. Sinn Fein have consolidated with a 2.5% gain. The SDLP is slipping slightly but holding its own more than the UUP - its slide is only 1.7%. Alliance and the Greens happy with their one per cent plus increases.

Back on air now - will blog when I can

McGeough arrested

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 05:07 PM

Gerry McGeough, the Independent Republican candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, has been arrested and is being questioned about the attempted murder of a UDR officer in 1981.

He was arrested in the car park after leaving the count centre in Omagh and is being questioned in the serious crime suite in Antrim.

Real Meat

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 03:06 PM

At last some real results with East and North Belfast both in. The detailed results are on our main site so your best bet is to try there or watch our TV/listen to our radio coverage. Looks like Dawn Purvis has defied those who believed the PUP could not survive David Ervine. Alliance's deputy leader Naomi Long - on the screen as I write - has a beaming smile. Up in North Belfast it looks the same again - it seems a tall order for the DUP's William Humphrey to catch the UUP's Fred Cobain. The collusion campaigner Raymond McCord could be the kingmaker - he has done better than in his previous outings.

Also hearing Anna Lo could be in in South Belfast on 3829 votes...

North Down latest

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 02:00 PM

An Alliance source in North Down thinks Robert McCartney has missed out. Predicts 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, with last two seats being fought out between the Greens, a 2nd UUP candidate and a third DUP candidate
My source's unofficial tally is as follows...

DUP 34-35% Alex Easton tops with 11% Peter Weir 11% Robert Graham 7%
Bob McCartney 6.2%
Alliance Stephen Farry 11%
UUP 22% Leslie Cree and Marion Smith ahead of Alan McFarland who looks likely to lose out

Brian Rowan polling around 3.5%. Did well in Holywood to some extent at expense of SDLP but not enough to get elected.

But remember folks no real results yet - we are still in the guessing game....

On air

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 12:10 PM

We're on air now on 成人快手1. First confirmed turnout figures coming through from our reporters. North Belfast 60.9% Lagan Valley 60%. West Belfast 67.4% which is up on last time. East Antrim 53.4%. East Londonderry 60.92%

A few more in...Foyle 63.88% Newry and Armagh 70.83% Upper Bann 61.14%

Lozenge Corner

  • Mark Devenport
  • 8 Mar 07, 10:21 AM

An hour and a half to go until 成人快手 Northern Ireland's rolling election coverage begins, and Professor Sidney Elliot and myself are engaged in our pre match warm up. No press ups or jogging on the spot, in my case it's a second late breakfast, whilst Sidney is poring over his paperwork.

One thing we do have in common is tickly throats - Sidney is recovering from losing his voice after too much lecturing, whilst I think I am on the brink of a cold. So forget the analysis, the turnout and the quotas - watch out for the lozenges being surreptitiously sucked to keep us going through two days of live broadcasting. We shall try not to pass on our germs to our fellow conspirator Mark Carruthers.

At this stage all information is pretty sketchy. Last night Sinn Fein sources put turnout in Mid Ulster at 70% and in Foyle at 68%. Reports from eastern parts are a bit lower than that, but voting still seems to have held up despite the allure of Manchester Utd and Celtic. Something along the lines of 2003 election's 64% turnout would not be surprising.

The SDLP appear chipper this morning, especially about the chances of their Strangford candidate Joe Boyle and their Newry and Armagh bid for two seats. The DUP also sound fairly content.

成人快手 News Online will have all the latest results and will also be streaming live our radio and tv election programmes. The address is bbc.co.uk/nirelandnews. The colour at Ballymena, where both Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness's votes are being counted, should be fun to watch.

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