It's Groundhog Day!
Welcome to Ground Hog Day -- aka the day Parliament returns from its mega summer break. When we stopped broadcasting in mid-July, politics was dominated by Gordon Brown's leadership, MPs expenses and party differences over how to cut the ballooning budget deficit.
With opinion polls showing the Tory lead as solid as ever -- even discounting a post-conference bounce -- the PM's position remains a matter of speculation. Most Labour MPs had resigned themselves to sticking with him, even if it meant certain defeat (as many think it will). But news of trouble with Mr Brown's remaining good eye has MPs buzzing that this is perhaps a precursor to the PM stepping down because of ill health. Sounds like wishful thinking to me.
Those MPs who thought they'd seen the worst of the will be sorely disappointed. It's back in the headlines with a vengeance. MPs sound aggrieved because the Commons' chief auditor is holding them to a higher standard than they have held themselves -- and demanding they pay back some claims. MPs are bleating that the rules have been changed. But MPs have always been subject to the rule that expenses must be "wholly and necessarily" in the line of duty. Use that yardstick -- common in the private sector -- and MPs will be writing a lot of refund cheques.
Mr Brown makes the latest contribution to the great deficit debate today by announcing a , such as the Tote and the Dartford crossing. But this is unlikely to have an immediate impact on deficit reduction, since many of these sales will take a long time to arrange. They also have only a one-off impact on the public finances whereas the bond markets are looking for evidence of major annual reductions -- and that can only come from cuts in spending or increases in tax -- or (more likely whoever wins the election) a combination of both.
It would be wrong to say nothing has changed when Parliament went off for the summer. The Lib Dems and the Tories have given us an idea of how they would cut public spending. Sure, they've announced no more than a down payment, but it gives us an indication of how they would do it. And Labour is now allowed to talk about cuts too.
The most important event between now and Christmas will be November's when Alistair Darling will have to flesh out exactly how he plans to cut the deficit in half over four years starting in 2011 -- and the other parties will then have to make their dispositions accordingly.
Should be a busy and interesting autumn.
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