Air thick with talk of a reshuffle
The worse Gordon Brown's fortunes, the faster the Westminster rumour-mill turns.
This morning its speed is frenetic. The air is thick with talk of a cabinet reshuffle, after the local and European elections in June, in which the PM will "shore up his authority" by sacking (who mocked his YouTube performance) and Jacqui Smith, whose difficulties coping with the ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Office have not been helped by her embarrassments over MPs expenses.
Plain folk will wonder if any of this makes sense.
First, if Labour really is heading for a thumping on , why not give the cabinet a fresh look before polling day in the hope of reducing the scale of defeat?
Second, cabinet reshuffles rarely matter beyond the Westminster village. Who is ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Secretary or Community Secretary will not determine how people will vote at the next election. Many Labour MPs fear that Mr Brown's chances of winning the next election are close to zero no matter who he has in (or out) of his cabinet.
Third, do you really "shore up your authority" by releasing a feisty critic on the backbenches like Ms Blears? I think not -- which is why I doubt it will happen (the PM has enough backbench critics as it is). Ms Smith is another matter -- few Labour MPs rate her as ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ Secretary and few tears would be shed if she were sacked.
The post-June elections reshuffle is being billed as the last before the general election. Disloyal and ineffective ministers will be cleared out as Mr Brown settles for the team that he will take into the 2010 election. I'd take all this with a cellar of salt.
Mr Brown no longer has the authority to preside over a clearout -- and if he attempted a large-scale one after a June election rout he could easily precipitate a wider rebellion over the summer that really would threaten his leadership.
The PM has enough enemies on the backbenches -- many MPs who've given up hope of winning their seats under him -- and hardly needs more. He also has some friends he could do without, such as John Prescott, the nation's official "bull-in-a-china-shop".
Though affecting to give full backing to the PM, Mr Prescott yesterday opined that Mr Brown had and, for good measure, proceeded to pull a face intending to mimic the Brown smile. In fact, it looked nothing like it, but Mr Prescott knew it would get him in all the papers, which it duly did. Labour cynics will conclude that the former deputy prime minister is more interested in generating publicity for himself than saving G Brown.
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