Eye-watering figures
The public prints and airwaves continued to be packed with . Some of them might even be accurate.
The latest wheeze, with only 24 hours to go, is £1 billion to "kick start" the . This follows talk of a barrage of "green" measures, , subsidies to scrap your existing car and subsidies if you're Scottish and born on a Tuesday (OK, I made that last one up).
Most folk will conclude that not all of these ideas are without merit though many will fear that the sums involved are really a pittance because the government has no money (hence all the talk of £15 billion in efficiency savings -- but since they are spread over several years and the government now spends over £600 billion a year, they might be regarded as a pittance too).
Most economists think, for example, that it will take more than £1bn to breathe life into the ailing housing market.
Chancellor Darling, however, is preparing us for a long on all sorts of interesting smallish measures.
There will be the impression of activity and even a smattering of generosity in these tough times -- a few hundred million for that, maybe even a billion for this.
Experienced commentators will look hard at the small print. The cynics will claim it is all designed to camouflage the : the amount of money we're in the process of borrowing.
Borrowing in the financial year just ending will likely be over £75 billion (well over double what was originally projected). In the new financial year about to start (2009/10) the Chancellor might admit to as much as £175 billion (he predicted £118 billion last November but not many believed that at the time and it could easily turn out to be even more than £175 billion). The year after that might mean more debt at a similar level.
These are eye-watering figures. Borrowing could be as high as 12% of annual national wealth (GDP) -- a peace-time record -- and accumulated debt could end up as high as 100% of GDP (another record). The markets are already anticipating these figures, so they won't be spooked.
But they will want to see a convincing debt reduction programme stretching well into the next decade so that the books reach balance once again. They might be disappointed.
All the political parties -- not just the government -- are still talking the language of tax-and-spend. The markets want to see the colour of their money when it comes to debt reduction.
They think spending should soon be cut drastically and taxes increased painfully (not to finance spending or other tax cuts but to reduce debt further). Without debt reduction from, say, 2011 onwards, interest rates will have to rise again, sterling could slump and inflation could be knocking at the door.
This Budget season is a test for our political system: who has the guts to tell us that so close to an election. Don't hold your breath!
Let me finish today by bring your attention to a report from the highly respected and independent-minded , which is not on the Budget but on educational opportunity.
Regular viewers of the Daily Politics will know this is one of our favourite themes and in many programmes we have highlighted the apparent lack of opportunities for bright kids from poor backgrounds.
Well, IFS has conducted a massive study with the Institute of Education and its conclusion is that bright children from poor homes are failing to get into university because of under-performing state schools rather than university bias against them. This might come as no surprise to Daily Politics viewers but the IFS findings are a major contribution to the debate.
And a final PPS: another think tank, , came out at the weekend with the surprising (to some) conclusion, using previously-unpublished figures, that English state schools, whatever their inadequacies, now outperform Scottish schools. Former Labour minister wrote that the superiority of Scottish education had been a myth for some time anyway. Now the facts would seem to have exploded the myth. Education is a wholly devolved matter: it will be interesting to see what the Scottish Parliament does about this clear blow to Scottish pride.
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