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Silly enough to let history repeat itself?

Andrew Neil | 11:01 UK time, Wednesday, 4 February 2009

Gordon Brown hates the idea, so does Europe, even , though he campaigned on it and some of his fellow Democrats are pretty keen on it.

I'm talking about protectionism, which always rears its head when times get tough. Politicians and commentators have assured us that we would not repeat the mistakes of the 1930s, when two American politicians gave their names to a piece of protectionist legislation -- the Smoot-Hawley Act -- which sparked off retaliatory beggar-thy-neighbour action across the globe and is widely believed to have prolonged and intensified the Great Depression.

So we will not be silly enough to let history repeat itself ... except that there are signs that it already is. Yesterday the EU -- no mean slouchers when it comes to protectionism itself, especially in farming -- warned of possible trade litigation against the US if Washington pressed ahead with a "Buy American" provision in its forthcoming economic stimulus bill, which is already looking like old-fashioned pork-barrel politics rather than a genuine attempt to kick start the US economy.

President Obama flew the protectionist flag during his campaign and his congressional Democrats now expect him to deliver. But "Buy America" will undoubtedly provoke retaliatory action, probably led by France (which is already sneaking cheap loans to Airbus to help see it through the recession).

The developing nations -- China, India, Brazil, even Russia -- are also hurting badly in the downturn; expect them to resort to protectionist measures too.

Banking protectionism is already here: major banks have stopped lending across borders; the withdrawal of foreign banks from the British market is the main reason credit has dried up (British banks are continuing to lend).

Most vocal of all, we have calls from the picket line for Gordon Brown to live up to his promise of "British jobs for British workers" and, now, even "British jobs for British graduates."

We're talking to the economist Will Hutton and one City analyst who predicts that what used to be the unthinkable -- global protectionism -- will happen. If he's right, the future could be grim indeed.

school_closed.jpgInevitably, we'll be talking snow, again. It's bought much of the country to a standstill, and even closed parks. There have been tragic deaths, but have we become a nation obsessed with health and safety laws.

At midday we'll have PMQs live, and top analysis with our Political Editor, Nick Robinson.

freddie_forsyth.jpgAuthor Freddie Forsyth will be getting angry with the bankers. And Quentin Letts will be here, telling us why its important for politicians to play the blame game.

Throughout the programme, we'll have the Olympics Minister, Tessa Jowell and the Tory Leader in the House of Lords, Tom Strathclyde.

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