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Leader of the pack - or bringing up the rear?

Andrew Neil | 10:20 UK time, Monday, 17 November 2008

in Washington DC with international cover for pump-priming tax cuts in next Monday's Pre-Budget report, which is now shaping up to be a fully-fledged Special Budget. But he still has to convince the Treasury and his Chancellor.

There has been wild talk, surprisingly encouraged by the IMF, about a £30bn stimulus, which would amount to 2% of GDP. The Treasury has quickly hosed down such speculation but Whitehall is abuzz with rumours that Mr Brown wants a much bigger Keynsian boost that either Mr Darling or the Treasury are prepared to contemplate. We'll know in seven days time when the Daily Politics will bring you live coverage of the "Special Budget" from 3pm onwards.

The PM still gets a kick from implying that he's leading world opinion in the banking crisis and it's certainly true that his bank bail out plan has proved rather more robust than Hank Paulson's in America. The US Treasury secretary has junked his original scheme to buy up all the toxic waste on US banks' balance sheets for something more Brownite in approach. Since Mr Paulson is a former boss of Goldman Sachs, it only goes to show that bankers these days aren't just incapable of running banks, they're also not very good at bail outs either.

But when it comes to fiscal stimulus, there is evidence to suggest Mr Brown is bringing up the rear rather than leading the pack. After all, many major economies have already cut tax or increased spending or done a bit of both, while Mr Brown talks about it: President Bush implemented a $150bn stimulus back in February; Japan is in a perpetual state of fiscal stimulus; the Chinese have just pumped up public spending and made Vat reforms worth a combined $600bn; the German and French governments have already approved pump-priming packages of their own, as has Spain; Australia did the same last month.

So I'm puzzled by claims that Mr Brown is leading the way since we'll have to wait until Monday to find out what the British government has in store; not for the first time, journalists are falling for a dollop of Downing Street spin.

The global consensus for tax cuts/extra spending, however, underlines how . They will be vindicated if the Brown boost does little to mitigate economic misery in 2009; but if the economy starts to improve on the back of tax cuts, the Tories will have bet the wrong horse.

At least Labour spin that Mr Osborne was talking down the pound -- a bit rich coming from a government which has presided over a 30% slump in sterling -- are likely to be muted: the pound rose in early trading this morning.

Big business, it seems, has now caught up with the rest of us: the , and that around one million people will lose their jobs as a result.

bob_crow.jpgOn the programme today we're looking at the war of words over the economy and the rival plans being considered by Labour and the Conservatives (do the Tories actually have a plan?). Union leader Bob Crow and the will debate the rival plans for tax cuts.

Also on the show today, is the European Union a capitalists' charter of a socialist's dream?

And as a minister's memo to his staff is leaked - giving precise details of just when he likes his coffee, and how his staff should talk to him - we look at the perils of working for those in high office. All that on the Daily Politics here on ³ÉÈË¿ìÊÖ2 at noon today.

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