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For thousands of years, our skills, emotions and creativity have led to the composition of millions of songs.

But fewer than 70 of these songs have gone on to win Eurovision.

Clearly, it takes something special to come out on top of the leaderboard in the biggest musical competition in the world - but is there a formula to Eurovision success?

Ahead of Liverpool hosting this year’s Song Contest on behalf of Ukraine, ���˿��� Bitesize spoke to five experts with different perspectives and experiences of the competition. Can they help calculate a path to douze points?

The Statistician

Doctor Liam Brierley is a research fellow at the University of Liverpool, an ambassador for the Royal Statistical Society, and a massive Eurovision fan. He’s used his statistical skills to take an expert look at the results of every edition of the competition since it began in 1956, and spotted some trends.

“In terms of the song,” he told Bitesize, “songs that are more like pop songs, ballads, or dance songs tend to score more points than those that are rock songs, rap songs, or other kinds of music.”

Introducing your country’s folklore and tradition to an international audience can also work, as well as staging that sticks in the mind (think flames, smoke and dramatic lighting) - and perhaps even a combination of both. Solo artists are also 15% more likely to score points than a duet or group.

One thing an act has no control over is where they sing in the Contest’s running order. Dr Brierley said: “It will affect your placement, probably because we remember songs that are performed later in the evening.”

However, even taking all these factors into consideration, a song can still come through the field and win without ticking any of these boxes. One example is the Italian group Måneskin, who won with a rock-style song in 2021. Dr Brierley noted: “They’re a group, performing in a style that’s not popular and yet they still won, so these are just trends rather than rules and Eurovision is nothing if not unpredictable.”

The Songwriter

In May 2003, when duo Jemini performed Cry Baby in the Latvian capital Riga, the UK Eurovision entry did something no other British act had done before; end the evening with zero points.

But writing a Eurovision entry, no matter the result, requires a lot of craft. Their song was written by Dr Martin Isherwood, head of music at the Liverpool Institute of Performing Arts (LIPA). He now advises the talent of the future on the art of composition. So what are his tips?

He said: “I think as a songwriter, you just always have to write the best song you can, try and get that emotion across. You have to think about trying to reach those audiences; families, people who love the party, and the event of Eurovision.”

With Cry Baby, Dr Isherwood: “Went for very pop, disco, that references other hits, Dinge-Dong [the Dutch winner from 1975], and I had an almost I Will Survive vibe from the ’70s in terms of its lyrics."

But this is where any theories about a formula for success may go off the boil: “If you look back over the last 20 years and try to see a through-line, a thread as to what type of songs win Eurovision, there isn’t one. There just isn’t one. From Lordi doing rock with masks on to Euphoria from Sweden, to Ukraine last year… with Eurovision, it’s as much about the performance.”

The Journalist

Daniel Rosney is the ���˿���’s official Eurovision reporter and a member of the Eurovisioncast podcast team. He gets to view the competition from the press centre, where journalists and fan bloggers watch rehearsals ahead of broadcast and form opinions on what song is likely to come out on top. Can good press boost a song’s chances?

“I think so,” he replied. “Not everybody is like me. They don’t follow it throughout the year, so for lots of people, if they know that Eurovision is coming up, they might see it in a newspaper or they might see it in social media.” Recognising an artist from those sources when they perform on the big night can, according to Daniel, encourage viewers to vote for them due to that prior knowledge.

That doesn’t mean the press gets it right all the time. Daniel continued: “We work in that press centre for about two weeks before Eurovision and we form this bubble, so… we forget the outside world doesn’t see the rehearsals that we see, so we see when things go wrong, we see when things go right… we form this idea of how it pans out on the night, and it never pans out that way!”

The Performer

SuRie was the UK entry at Eurovision 2018 with the dance track Storm. An experienced musician, singer-songwriter and graduate of the Royal Academy of Music, she had previously appeared at Eurovision supporting Belgium with her musical skills at the 2015 and 2017 Contests.

“I went at one point to 11 different countries, writing for Eurovision,” SuRie remembered. “Now, the formula… trying to gauge a formula for a Eurovision song, in my experience, doesn’t work.

“That authenticity on stage, in whatever style, is what is successful… The best process that I’ve been part of are when we are not writing a Eurovision song, we’re writing for Eurovision.”

The Academic

While studying for his PhD, Paul Jordan looked at the way Estonia used its hosting of Eurovision 2002 to rebrand itself to the world following its independence from the Soviet Union.

It led to him becoming known as Dr Eurovision, a man who regularly offers analysis on how the Contest can play a part in a national identity. Dr Jordan said: “In the 1990s, as Europe changed, as the Berlin Wall came down, there were a lot of songs about freedom. Freedom of speech, freedom of expression."

He recalls Germany's 1990 entry, whose title translates as 'Free to Live', and Austria's entry from the same year, called No More Walls, as examples of Eurovision reflecting world events.

Neither the German nor the Austrian song won Eurovision in 1990 - that honour went to Italy’s song about European unity. However, Ukraine’s victory in 2022 did come from an overwhelming public vote at a time of war. Dr Jordan said: “I don’t think it was necessarily politics. I think it was a showing of solidarity.”

Eurovision Song Contest 2023 is live from Liverpool on ���˿��� One on 9, 11 and 13 May.

This article was published in May 2023